Abstract: This paper explored the risk of distal radius fracture in gymnasts based on quantitative CT parameters. A total of 135 forearm trauma gymnasts with suspected distal radius fractures were recruited as the research objects,and divided into the occurrence group (n=20) and the non-occurrence group (n=115) according to whether the distal radius fracture occurred or not. The general data, quantitative CT parameters [bone scan index (BSI), cortical bone mineral density (cBMD)] and imaging characteristics of the two groups were counted, and the Logistic regression equation was used to analyze the influencing factors of distal radius fractures in gymnasts, and a nomogram was constructed. Predict the model and verify the prediction effect. The results showed that pre-exercise preparation activities, wearing protective measures, BSI, cBMD, and dorsal bone fragment thickness were the influencing factors of the risk of distal radius fractures in gymnasts (P<0.05). A total of 5 influencing factors were included in the nomogram model, and the C-index was 0.899. The Bootstrap self-sampling method showed that the predicted value was basically consistent with the actual observed value; the ROC curve showed that the AUC of the nomogram prediction model was 0.815 (95%CI: 0.638-0.863). It is concluded that the construction of a nomogram model for the risk of distal radius fractures in gymnasts based on quantitative CT parameters has good predictive performance, which is beneficial to guiding clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Key words: gymnast, distal radius fracture, quantitative CT parameters, nomogram model